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Rishi Sunak will want to know what the European Research Group is saying about his Rwanda bill. Here are the main conclusions from the 10-page document legal assessment of the bill produced by the ERG’s “star chamber”, led by Sir Bill Cash. (Bold text added by me.)

The bill overall provides a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts being used as stratagems to delay or defeat the removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda, for the following reasons.

Most importantly, the bill contains no restrictions on the bringing of legal challenges against removal to Rwanda based on grounds other than that Rwanda is not a safe country. Many such individual claims have already been brought on a variety of other grounds, and it is to be expected that if the bill successfully blocks challenges based on contentions that Rwanda is not safe, then migrants and their advisers will focus more of their efforts on generating and pursuing challenges of other kinds.

The restriction in the bill is only against pursuing claims that Rwanda is unsafe for migrants removed there in general. Clause 4(1) expressly preserves the possibility of legal challenges to removal based on arguments that a person’s individual circumstances may lead to them being subject to a risk of refoulement and illtreatment. The treaty is intended to address such concerns. However, by allowing individual claims, appeals, and injunctions, the statutory scheme is open to significant levels of legal challenge. Experience to date in cases about attempted removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda demonstrates that individual challenges are likely to be numerous, and that they have had a high rate of success.

The bill’s threshold requirement for interim relief that there should be a risk of “serious and irreparable harm” is in practice much easier to surmount than the words might suggest, for example through the provision of medical statements of mental conditions which are not easy to prove or disprove (for example, suicidal ideation). There is a serious risk that there will be no, or very few, actual removals to Rwanda for months after the bill comes into force.

Clause 5 of the bill deals with interim measures of the Strasbourg court (so-called “Rule 39 indications”) by stating that a minister of the crown may decide not to comply with them. In our view this does no more than restate the existing legal position, since (1) there are compelling arguments that Rule 39 indications do not give rise to an obligation in international law to comply with them, and (2) in any event Strasbourg Court rulings do not of themselves create obligations which are enforceable under domestic UK law. Perversely, the inclusion of ministerial decisions relating to Rule 39 indications in clause 5(2) of the bill might give rise to a possibility of bringing judicial reviews against such decisions which would not otherwise arise. It would be preferable if the bill were positively to require such interim indications [ECtHR injunctions] to be disregarded when UK courts refuse interim relief.

The Covid inquiry has stopped for lunch. Rishi Sunak is off somewhere – no doubt to get briefed on the latest prouncement from the ERG.

Back at the Commons, the ERG is meeting again tonight, ITV’s Carl Dinnen reports.

The ERG and others won’t yet commit to how they plan to vote.

They will meet again at 6pm to hear from Robert Jenrick.

Back at the Covid inquiry Hugo Keith KC is now asking about the opening up measures planned for the summer.

Rishi Sunak says the scheme was delayed at one point because of the concerns of the scientists.

And he says asymptomatic transmission was not well understood at the time.

Q: Are you saying at the end of June you were not aware that the plans were at the riskier end of the spectrum, and that real care would have to be taken.

Sunak says he knew opening schools was a risk.

But the European Research Group won’t say how it will advise its members to vote in the second reading debate tomorrow, Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reports.

Mark Francois is chair of the ERG.

During Brexit, dozens of Tory MPs were members of the ERG and in most of the key Brexit votes they operated an informal whip and stuck to an agreed line (normally voting against Theresa May).

But fewer MPs identify with the ERG now (the group will not divulge how many members it has), and even if the ERG leadership advises its members to vote a certain way, there is no guarantee they will comply.

The Conservative European Research Group has been told by its legal “star chamber” that the government’s Rwanda bill is a “partial and incomplete solution” to the problem posed by small boats, Aubrey Allegretti from the Times reports.

ERG Star Chamber says that Rwanda bill is a “partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts” to “delay or defeat the removal” of migrants

UPDATE: Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt has posted the ERG announcement on X.

Keith is edging towards “eat out to help out”.

He shows the inquiry an extract from a Treasury memo from early May 2020 highlighting the importance of reopening hospitality.

Sunak points out that the government wanted to open schools and non-essential retail first.

He says there was quite a lot of resistance from schools about going back early.

He says the Treasury’s input would have focused mostly on labour market issues.

Opening schools has an impact on the labour market, because parents can return to work, he says.

Keith shows Sunak a memo he was sent in April 2020, when the government was considering the timing of lifting lockdown measures. Here is one extract.

But he focuses on this page, referring to the Treasury wanting the PM to see a document about the economy that has not been “watered down” by the Cabinet Office office. It is at line 3 b.

Sunak says he did not write this. He says he is not sure what concerned his officials, but he says he never felt he could not express his views to the PM.

At the Covid inquiry Rishi Sunak refers to a day during the early days of the Covid crisis when the government had a failed gilt auction.

That meant the government was not able to borrow in the normal way on the money markets.

It was a rare, and worrying, event.

Hugo Keith KC says this happened at a time when the government was considering locking down London. Did that influence the decision?

Sunak says he is not sure. That is a question for the PM. But he says this shows why he was doing such a difficult job.

He says that day closing schools was proposed. The government acted.

The government will publish a summary of its legal advice about the Rwanda bill, Pippa Crerar reports. She has just come out of the No 10 lobby briefing.

NEW: No 10 says govt will published summary of legal advice on Rwanda bill today “in recognition of significant public interest”.

Very unusual move, presumably intended to aid factions of Tory MPs studying bill.

PM’s spox says still govt policy not to publish legal advice in full.

The inquiry has resumed, and Hugo Keith KC is asking about the “behavioural fatigue” argument – the claim that introducing the first lockdown too soon would be mistake, because after a while people would get tired of complying.

Rishi Sunak says he does not remember a lot about this debate. He says the Department of Health was on the lead on this.

According to the Sun’s Jack Elsom, Rishi Sunak has invited Tory MPs considering rebelling over the Rwanda bill to breakfast tomorrow.

Smoked salmon offensive!

I hear Rishi Sunak has invited Tory Rwanda rebels in for a breakfast meeting tomorrow morning.

If it’s the ERG lot, presumably he would do better offering them a Full English.

The Covid inquiry has stopped for a 10-minute break.