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Rishi Sunak to face Covid inquiry as Tory MPs meet to consider fate of Rwanda asylum bill
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is in “facing his worst week as prime minister” territory. All prime ministers have weeks that are described by the media as their most difficult yet, and this does not necessarily mean all his lost. Tony Blair was regularly having “worst weeks yet” throughout his entire 10-year premiership. But Sunak really is in a dire state. He is facing near-certain electoral defeat at some point in the next 13 months and now, for the first time since he became leader, there is real speculation about some sort of leadership challenge. In what will be seen by many non-Tories as a sign that the party is flirting with insanity, there has even been talk of a Boris Johnson comeback.
Sunak faces two particular challenges today. First, he is spending most of the day at the Covid inquiry, where he is likely to face questions about his lockdown-sceptical stance as chancellor that led him to be nicknamed “Dr Death” by Prof Dame Angela McLean, who is now the government’s chief scientific adviser (presumably that did not come up at her interview). Sunak will also be asked about his “eat out to help out” scheme. Tom Ambrose has a preview here.
But, more importantly, two groups of Conservative MPs will meet to decide their stance on the new Rwanda deportation bill that is getting its second reading in the Commons. This is the issue that is creating a division in the party deep enough to pose an existential threat to Sunak’s premiership. It seems likely the bill will pass tomorrow, but only because Tory MPs will put off the key fight until report stage after Christmas, when rightwingers will try to amend it in one direction, centrists will try yanking it in the opposite direction, and at that point there might be no bill left the party can unite around.
Even if the bill survives the Commons, it is bound to face challenge in the House of Lords. But perhaps the biggest danger of all for Sunak is that the bill does become law – only for it to fail to totally to “stop the boats” because of ongoing legal challenges (which is what his critics are saying is bound to happen). Rowena Mason has the latest on this here.
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, was doing a media round this morning. He defended the bill, claiming that it would stop 99.5% of appeals against deportation. He told Times Radio:
I think my simple message is this plan is working, let’s unite behind it and get this further legislation through.
This legislation, by the way, based on Home Office calculations means that of the cases which currently allow people to appeal, that only about one out of 200 cases ultimately would be able to get through that appeal. So this is a very significant, even dramatic move, designed to make the Rwanda route work.
Shapps was referring to Home Office modelling leaked to the Times. In his story Matt Dathan says:
The Home Office believes 99.5% of individual legal challenges submitted by migrants will fail to block their deportation to Rwanda under Rishi Sunak’s emergency law, leaked documents reveal.
Modelling prepared by officials to assess the risk of individual legal challenges scuppering Rishi Sunak’s emergency Rwanda bill predicts nine in ten of all claims would be rejected with no right of appeal within ten days of their arrival in the UK …
The department believes that of the 10% that are granted a hearing, 90% will be struck out at the second stage of the legal process. Only half of the remaining cases that are allowed to progress to an upper tribunal appeal would succeed and lead to the migrant remaining in the UK, according to the Home Office modelling.
It means that if 1,000 migrants were to lodge individual legal challenges against their removal, 900 would be rejected at the first stage and only five migrants would ultimately succeed in blocking their deportation.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: Rishi Sunak starts giving evidence to the Covid inquiry. He is due to give evidence all day.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Noon: Sir Bill Cash briefs members of the European Research Group and other rightwing Conservative groups in parliament on the findings of the ERG’s legal “star chamber” on the viability of the Rwanda bill.
1.30pm: Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, holds talks with the main parties in Northern Ireland on efforts to resume power sharing at Stormont.
3pm: Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, gives evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about the Rwanda deportation policy.
6pm: The Conservative One Nation Caucus meets to consider its stance on the Rwanda bill.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Key events
In his interviews this morning Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, defended Rishi Sunak’s record during Covid, claiming that as chancellor Sunak “saved the economy”. He told GB News:
It’s so easy in hindsight to look at all these things with 20/20 vision and say ‘Ah, if only you had done X at Y moment in time’. The fact of the matter is Rishi Sunak, during Covid, saved millions of jobs in this country through the furlough programme and saved millions of businesses as well, with huge amounts of support – over £400bn.
I think we should actually remember that he was the guy who saved the economy, an economy which – against all the expectations previously – has actually grown this year as a result of the decisions he made not to allow businesses and jobs to go.
Nigel Farage was one of the few prominent rightwingers not being touted as a possible replacement for Rishi Sunak in the papers yesterday. But in their Mail on Sunday story, Glen Owen and Dan Hodges did quote one Tory suggesting he could be given a peerage and appointed home secretary. They said:
One Tory MP said: ‘When Farage comes back he’s going to be all over the airwaves, and he’s going to have us in his sights.’
Another said: ‘Reform are going to kill us, so we have to buy Farage off. The plan is we get him into the Lords, give him some brief like we did with Cameron – maybe even home secretary – then go to the country with the dream team.
Among the Tories were touted as possible Sunak replacements were:
Boris Johnson: In its story, the Mail on Sunday said:
The Mail on Sunday has spoken to multiple Conservative MPs who believe that bringing back the former premier is the only way to save the party from an election wipe-out …
One red qall MP told the MoS: ‘I came out early to say [Johnson] had to go. But I think we have to think outside the box now. Whatever you feel about him, one thing no one can question is his effectiveness as a campaigner. And we need that now, we’re staring at obliteration.
Kemi Badenoch: The Sunday Times said the business and trade secretary is working on a leadership bid. In their story Tim Shipman and Harry Yorke said:
Cabinet colleagues accuse Kemi Badenoch, the trade secretary, of calling another minister to say: “The ship is heading for the rocks. What are we going to do about the captain?” One cabinet minister entertaining thoughts of a leadership run said: “Kemi’s people are already offering jobs. I know that because one of my people was approached.”
A source close to Badenoch told the paper this was untrue.
Dame Priti Patel: The Mail on Sunday floated the idea that the former home secretary could installed as a caretaker prime minister while Johnson arranged to return to the Commons.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg: The former Evening Standard editor Emily Sheffield posted this on X.
No surprise that to hear Robert Jenrick is allegedly going around canvassing on his leadership chances. More surprised I was rung yesterday by one Tory to ask if I would join @Jacob_Rees_Mogg & his plan of ditching Sunak & parachuting in a new leader. Pure derangement.
— Emily Sheffield (@emilysheffield) December 9, 2023
Sir Simon Clarke: This is what Alex Wickham and Kitty Donaldson said about the former levelling up secretary in their Bloomberg long read.
Some Tory lawmakers are plotting to oust him. Allies of his predecessor Liz Truss have held talks with colleagues about writing letters of no confidence in Sunak, and some want Simon Clarke, a rightwing backbencher, to challenge him, people familiar with those conversations said. Truss’s spokesman said she’s not plotting, while Clarke told Bloomberg he wants the government to succeed.
There are several other figures in the party also whose leadership ambitions are well known, such as Suella Braverman, the former home secretary.
Farage says ‘never say never’ when asked about possible political comeback, saying Tories ‘in total shambles’
Ever since he gave up leadership of the Brexit party, and let Richard Tice lead it under its new name, Reform UK, Nigel Farage has liked nothing more than teasing the media with hints about a possible comeback. He was at it again this morning, in an interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain after finishing third in I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!
Farage was asked if he wanted to rejoin the Conservative party, which he used to belong to until he left to help set up Ukip in the 1990s. He replied:
I am looking at a Conservative government that is in total shambles, facing tomorrow effectively a confidence vote on an issue that affects every single living human being in our country, namely immigration on a level that never happened even during Tony Blair’s days.
Rishi [Sunak] is a lame duck walking. The Conservative party are headed for total defeat. As to whether I have a future in politics, I have no idea at this moment in time.
But what I would say is never say never. And our country needs, actually, people at the top with some firm guidance as to where we’re going in the future. At the moment we are rudderless and I don’t see a Labour party with strength to get us out of this mess.
‘Are you seeking to use your I’m a Celebrity journey to rejoin the Conservatives and finally get into the UK Parliament?’@edballs questions Nigel Farage over a return to politics after he came third in the I’m a Celebrity jungle 🐛🐞🐜 pic.twitter.com/sLU7RaFmuL
— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) December 11, 2023
![Bereaved families outside the Covid inquiry this morning as Rishi Sunak arrived.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2f35ecb11bd3dcf4e6cfe4f5122e694ed27631b0/0_0_4444_2958/master/4444.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
![Rishi Sunak arriving for the Covid inquiry this morning.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2a70bf7f2f29113eba90416f66d2fb8134753320/0_0_5184_3456/master/5184.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Rishi Sunak to face Covid inquiry as Tory MPs meet to consider fate of Rwanda asylum bill
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is in “facing his worst week as prime minister” territory. All prime ministers have weeks that are described by the media as their most difficult yet, and this does not necessarily mean all his lost. Tony Blair was regularly having “worst weeks yet” throughout his entire 10-year premiership. But Sunak really is in a dire state. He is facing near-certain electoral defeat at some point in the next 13 months and now, for the first time since he became leader, there is real speculation about some sort of leadership challenge. In what will be seen by many non-Tories as a sign that the party is flirting with insanity, there has even been talk of a Boris Johnson comeback.
Sunak faces two particular challenges today. First, he is spending most of the day at the Covid inquiry, where he is likely to face questions about his lockdown-sceptical stance as chancellor that led him to be nicknamed “Dr Death” by Prof Dame Angela McLean, who is now the government’s chief scientific adviser (presumably that did not come up at her interview). Sunak will also be asked about his “eat out to help out” scheme. Tom Ambrose has a preview here.
But, more importantly, two groups of Conservative MPs will meet to decide their stance on the new Rwanda deportation bill that is getting its second reading in the Commons. This is the issue that is creating a division in the party deep enough to pose an existential threat to Sunak’s premiership. It seems likely the bill will pass tomorrow, but only because Tory MPs will put off the key fight until report stage after Christmas, when rightwingers will try to amend it in one direction, centrists will try yanking it in the opposite direction, and at that point there might be no bill left the party can unite around.
Even if the bill survives the Commons, it is bound to face challenge in the House of Lords. But perhaps the biggest danger of all for Sunak is that the bill does become law – only for it to fail to totally to “stop the boats” because of ongoing legal challenges (which is what his critics are saying is bound to happen). Rowena Mason has the latest on this here.
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, was doing a media round this morning. He defended the bill, claiming that it would stop 99.5% of appeals against deportation. He told Times Radio:
I think my simple message is this plan is working, let’s unite behind it and get this further legislation through.
This legislation, by the way, based on Home Office calculations means that of the cases which currently allow people to appeal, that only about one out of 200 cases ultimately would be able to get through that appeal. So this is a very significant, even dramatic move, designed to make the Rwanda route work.
Shapps was referring to Home Office modelling leaked to the Times. In his story Matt Dathan says:
The Home Office believes 99.5% of individual legal challenges submitted by migrants will fail to block their deportation to Rwanda under Rishi Sunak’s emergency law, leaked documents reveal.
Modelling prepared by officials to assess the risk of individual legal challenges scuppering Rishi Sunak’s emergency Rwanda bill predicts nine in ten of all claims would be rejected with no right of appeal within ten days of their arrival in the UK …
The department believes that of the 10% that are granted a hearing, 90% will be struck out at the second stage of the legal process. Only half of the remaining cases that are allowed to progress to an upper tribunal appeal would succeed and lead to the migrant remaining in the UK, according to the Home Office modelling.
It means that if 1,000 migrants were to lodge individual legal challenges against their removal, 900 would be rejected at the first stage and only five migrants would ultimately succeed in blocking their deportation.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: Rishi Sunak starts giving evidence to the Covid inquiry. He is due to give evidence all day.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Noon: Sir Bill Cash briefs members of the European Research Group and other rightwing Conservative groups in parliament on the findings of the ERG’s legal “star chamber” on the viability of the Rwanda bill.
1.30pm: Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, holds talks with the main parties in Northern Ireland on efforts to resume power sharing at Stormont.
3pm: Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, gives evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about the Rwanda deportation policy.
6pm: The Conservative One Nation Caucus meets to consider its stance on the Rwanda bill.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.