Health News at Your Fingertips

The Reserve Bank has released its quarterly statement on monetary policy, which fills out a bit of the context around this week’s surprise rise of 25 basic points for the cash rate to 0.35%. (Farewell record low 0.1% for a while.)

A key table is this one, noting how inflation is “materially higher” than the central bank expected three months ago:

The bank said:

Headline inflation is now expected to peak at around 6 per cent in the second half of this year, partly driven by higher petrol prices and sharp increases in the cost of new dwellings.

(Note the CPI does not track house prices, only the cost of building a new one.)

Given we were at 5.1% annually for the March quarter, that 6% might prove a bit optimistic, especially as electricity price hikes are still to come.

Anyway, the bank’s preferred “trimmed mean” inflation measure is expected to peak at about 4.75%, or well outside the 2% to 3% range the RBA aims for over the medium term. By 2024, that gauge should be back to the top of that range.

As Guardian columnist Greg Jericho has just noted, the CPI forecasts now differ notably from what Treasury estimated in the federal budget released just over a month ago:

“As the supply-side disruptions start to ease, inflation is expected to decline from these peaks,” it said. “However, with labour market conditions being the tightest they have been for a long time, growth in labour costs is expected to pick up further in the period ahead.”

The jobless rate is predicted to drop from 4% in March to 3.5% by early next year, the lowest in half a century. Bulk commodity prices are up 11% from three months ago, and 72% higher than a year earlier, which is one reason some of the GDP growth figures are higher in the near term.

Q: Perhaps minister Price might be able to answer – on the unmanned aerial drones, or vehicles, why did the government scrap the $1.3bn Sky Guardian project a couple of months ago, which would have required 10 to 12 of these UAVs, which we were told would do a great job in protecting our northern borders. Why did we scrap them?

Scott Morrison:

When we’re making decisions about future capabilities, you’ve got to weigh up the respective capabilities of what you’re seeking to invest in. And what we were able to do in the most recent budget was commit $10bn to the Red Spice Initiative, which sees us massively upgrade our cyber capabilities. And so there is always difficult choices to be made in defence.

And we make those choices based on the best possible advice out of our defence forces, out of our Department of Defence, and we consider those things carefully.

But, you know, government’s hard. You’ve got to make difficult choices all the time about capability. There are programs you choose not to go ahead with because you want to go ahead with other programs. I’ve got to say, one of the most difficult decisions I had to make over the course of this last term was to discontinue the attack class program for the French submarines. I understood that doing that would carry some pretty serious ramifications when it came to the relation – yes, both on cost and on the diplomatic issues, with a good friend and partner in France.

But you know, when you’re prime minister, you don’t get an easy day in the office. Every single day is hard.

You’ve got to make tough decisions every day.

If Anthony Albanese thinks the campaign is hard, I’ve got news for him – government’s a lot harder.

Cheers.

The press conference ends.

Q: Has the Liberal party lost its ground under your leadership?

Scott Morrison:

The Liberal party has ensured that, through the most difficult challenge that we have faced since the second world war and the Great Depression, that our policies – jobkeeper, cashflow boost, understanding the importance of small business, investing in manufacturing, investing in training, ensuring we could guarantee the essential services that Australians rely on, which comes from running a strong economy, getting taxes down – I mean, tax rates for small business has gone from 20% to 35%. We’re ensuring now that, if you’re earning $90,000 a year, that you’re paying 50 bucks a week less on tax than you would have if Labor party’s taxes still were in place.

That’s what the Liberal party’s always been about. Getting taxes down, ensuring that we’re delivering on a strong economy, guaranteeing the essential services that Australians rely on. That’s what the Liberal party have always stood for. And that is the strong economy they can vote for.

Now, if they want to consider an alternative that leads to chaos in the parliament, then that will only lead to their interests, their families, their jobs, their economy, being under threat. Last one.

Scott Morrison gets a little cranky on this one.

Q: I think all of Australia deserves to know, will you resign as leader in the case of a hung parliament? You say it’s a cavalcade of chaos, so will you resign?

Scott Morrison:

This is choice for the Australian people.

Q: That’s not a yes-or-no answer.

Morrison:

You get to ask the questions, not say what the answer is. My answer to that is – my answer lies in the lap of the Australian people. See, I’m the first prime minister …

Q: That sounds like you would resign.

Morrison:

Again, I’ll answer the question. I’m very happy to answer the question. And I’ll take you through what it is.

I’m the first prime minister that has been able to stand for election at the last election and then stand for an election again. [I assume he means since John Howard.]

So I’m going to the Australian people at this election, and that’s the first time that has happened in about 15 years. And that has provided great stability and certainty, I believe. And that was one of the things I said I would bring back to politics when I became prime minister.

That I would provide that certainty and stability of leadership, which I have delivered from last election through to this election. And I’m putting myself forward to be able to continue to provide that strong leadership. So the decision – the decision for the Australian people – is up to them. And I put my trust in their good conscience and their good faith. That is my answer.

Q: Do you believe both you and the coalition will have the support of young voters this election?

Scott Morrison:

For young voters in particular, I know there are many things that play on their minds at this election. Of course, issues of climate change are of great interest. They’re of interest – my kids are not of voting age yet, but they talk about these issues as well.

That’s why, as a government, we’ve had a very practical approach to addressing that issue. I mean, we’ve already seen Australia receive around a 28% reduction in emissions.

Not many people know that. It’s not something often repeated by those talking about these issues – Australia’s emission reduction performance is better than the United States, many times over what’s been achieved in New Zealand and Canada, better than Japan, and we are investing $22 billion to take us to our meeting, our net zero by 2050 commitments, which is something that, as Prime Minister, bringing together the Liberals and the Nationals for the first time to be able to make that commitment to go to Glasgow and be able to put that on the table as a clear government policy and a plan of $22 billion to achieve it.

Because our way of reaching net zero by 2050 is, first of all, to do it through technology, not taxes. Secondly, to ensure that we are giving people choices – and good choices, not mandates.

It’s about ensuring that we’re investing in getting the costs of technology down. Now, this is incredibly important. Because if you can’t get the costs of technology that drives lower emissions usage in Australia around the world, you won’t see emissions fall in Indonesia. You won’t see it in India. You won’t see it in Vietnam or China or many of these other countries.

So, developed countries can access this technology, but developing countries – whose emissions are rising – won’t be able to. And that’s a great opportunity for Australia. Fourthly, you need to ensure that you’ve got affordable, reliable energy. That’s important for companies like this. You need to ensure that you can – there’s five points to the plan. I’m keen to go through all five.

On the fourth point, it’s about ensuring that we keep that reliable, affordable energy. That’s why we’ve leaned in to the gas-fired power station, which Anthony Albanese was against, and then he was for, and then he was against, and then he’s for. And then fifthly, it’s assuring accountability and transparency.

Australia has one of the most transparent and open systems of reporting our emissions reductions of almost any country in the world. So that’s our plan. You’ve asked me about young people. 220,000 apprentices in trade training today. That is the highest level we have seen since 1963.

We’re giving young people the opportunity for a great job. I mean, youth unemployment is down to 8.3%. Young Australians are coming out of training, out of school, out of university, and going into jobs. That wasn’t the case when I left university. It wasn’t the case when my generation left training.

They walked into joblessness and they walked into the question about “if” they would have a job, not what sort of job. And for young people today – for young people today, because of the strong economic management we’ve provided, they can look forward to their future with confidence. Because we’re getting the youth unemployment rate down.

[There are a lot of interjections from reporters].

Q: A prominent opposition MP in the Solomons has claimed that, following PM Sogavare’s comment that Australia’s threatened to invade, that’s paved the way for Chinese boots on the ground in the Solomons. Do you still believe that your comments about a red line were appropriate? Or has the language put Australia’s national security more at risk?

Scott Morrison:

No, I don’t believe it has.

I mean, we’ve been very clear – as we always have – about what Australia’s national security interests are. And we’ve also always been very clear about the very high levels of support that we’ve always provided to the people of Solomon Islands and the Solomon Islands government.

The Australian federal police are there right now. And they will be there until the end of 2023.

We’ve given those commitments. And we’ll continue to provide additional support as they require it. They have a secret arrangement with the Chinese government.

But I’ll tell you this – when it comes to dealing with the coercion that we see from the Chinese government – whether here in our region, in the south-west Pacific, or anywhere else across the Indo-Pacific – there is no government, there is no prime minister, that has been more forward-leaning in standing up to that coercion in face of the world …

This is what a strong government does to protect Australia’s national interests. I will never step back from protecting Australia’s national interests.

Q: It’s been eight months since the French submarine contract was scrapped. What’s holding you back from finalising compensation agreements so voters can know exactly how much this saga costs them?

Scott Morrison:

It’s a process that’s being followed in the normal course of events. And it hasn’t concluded yet. I mean, it’s a commercial process that’s under way.

Q: Is it being delayed so voters don’t know the true cost before the election?

Morrison:

Of course not. What makes you say that?

Q: I’m asking you.

Morrison:

No, of course not.

Q: How much do you expect it will cost?

Morrison:

We don’t know at this point.

Q: You must have some idea …

Morrison:

I’m not going to pre-empt any such commercial negotiation. That would be foolish. That would be reckless. And I don’t engage in recklessness on national security policy or commercial policy on behalf of the government.

Q: Do you think your government has done enough to address systemic issues among Indigenous Australians?

Scott Morrison:

That’s one of the most challenging and difficult areas of public policy in supporting Indigenous Australians, whether they be in our major capital cities or, particularly, in remote communities.

Ken Wyatt, the first-ever Australian to be the minister for Indigenous Australians, the first Indigenous Australian to ever sit in a cabinet – in my cabinet – I think has been very well-placed to inform the government’s response.

When I became prime minister, one of the things I wanted to change was how we were dealing with closing the gap. Because the problem with Closing the Gap – it was only dealing with things at a federal level.

And what I was able to do with Pat Turner, who heads the coalition of peak groups of Indigenous service providers is, we struck a new deal.

A deal that ensured that everybody has a role to play, including the federal government, including state governments and others, commit to the same outcomes and commit to the same plans with the funding to support that, as we’ve demonstrated now in several budgets since I’ve brought down that first agreement.

And that includes everything from the causal factors that go to Indigenous disadvantage with health and education and maternal health and child health and foetal alcohol syndrome and all of these types of things.

We’ve been increasing our investment and ensuring that those investments have been drawn up by the experiences on the ground. Now, we will take the same approach there in Wadeye, working with the local authorities to ensure that they get what they need from the commonwealth areas of responsibility. And that means it’s a tough issue and we will be guided by what is needed on the ground, and listen carefully to the requests for assistance that are made.

Q: Why won’t you support a royal commission into the handling of the pandemic?

Scott Morrison:

I said we’re still in the pandemic. And the pandemic hasn’t completed. In fact, as you will see – the reports on some new variants coming out of South Africa and I’ve been following those issues closely with the chief medical officer as you expect me to … Our experts have been available to that inquiry each and every time.

Q: Why won’t you support a royal commission?

Morrison:

My focus is on continuing to manage Australia’s response … to the pandemic. And there’ll be a time to address those issues once the pandemic has concluded.

Q: Would you support a royal commission?

Morrison goes to another question.

Q: [How are you] looking to win the voters who are looking to go independent back?

Scott Morrison:

What we’re seeing has been very disruptive times for our country. The last two years we’ve gone through things that none of us thought we would ever go through in our life time. And I think that’s really disrupted things.

We found out how strong we are as a people, but at the same time it’s making us think about a lot of issues. And that’s good. That’s what election campaigns are all about. That’s what elections are all about.

And I’m not surprised that after a time of so much disruption, and so much difficulty and hardship, that Australians are thinking carefully about the choice they’re going to make at this election.

And there’s still two weeks to go. Just over. And they’re seeking to make up their minds on these issues and that’s why I encourage them.

The choice you make at this election will have a very significant impact for you and your family, the place you work, the opportunities you have, the savings for your retirement, all of these things will be impacted. And so that’s why I make it very plain that the times are uncertain, that times are challenging.

And there’s a clear choice between the government you know with a clear plan to take Australia forward and the strength to back it up, and a weak Labor opposition that doesn’t have a plan and you don’t know.

Q: Given Malcolm Turnbull is now advocating for teal in the meantime, teal independents, should he be kicked out of the Liberal party, and will you resign if you lose the election?

Scott Morrison:

I’m focused on the choice that Australians have to make in just a couple of weeks’ time. Over the course of the campaign Australians are getting a keen sense of what that choice is about.

When we started the election, I said it was a choice between a government and Liberals and Nationals who have demonstrated that we have an economic plan for the future, one that’s taken us through these very difficult times.

And a Labor opposition that people don’t know. And as this campaign has gone on, we’ve soon just how much we don’t know about the Labor party and I think Australians are really starting to ask the question – is Anthony Albanese really up to this?

Now, when it comes to other former prime ministers have said, I have always treated former prime ministers of both political persuasions with the utmost of dignity and respect. I don’t share his view. My view I just explained to you.

That’s the chaos of a parliament driven by the daily musings of independents, who haven’t had the experience to deal with the serious security and economic challenges our country faces, that is going to hurt people’s incomes.

It’s going to hurt people’s jobs. It’s going to damage Australian security. As a result, as a result – I urge the return of the Liberal National government because that’s the strength that Australia needs in these times of great uncertainty.

You’re all talking over each other.

Q: Will you resign if you lose the election? [He takes another question]

Q: Your own predecessor seems to be telling Australians to do the opposite when it comes to polling day. What does it say about the government under your leadership?

Scott Morrison:

Well, the message remains exactly the same. And my warning to Australians is exactly the same. That I’ve said all along, we are facing some of the most serious economic and international security challenges that Australians have faced since the second world war and the Great Depression.

And what we’re announcing today here shows the fusion of economic security and national security. And making sure you are working those two issues together to keep Australians safe, and to keep our economy strong.

Now what the government needs to continue to do, and that’s why voting for the Liberals and Nationals achieves this, over the last three years in particular, we’ve had the strength of a majority government, if each and every day we had to go and negotiate for the government’s existence with a cavalcade of independents, pushed to and fro by others, Australia wouldn’t have the strength to go through the pandemic in the way we have.

My warning is very clear to those seats where people are thinking about independents, I would say this – if they won’t tell you how they would vote, how could you vote for them? Not just on who they support in government, but we can’t have a government that’s a weather vane.

We’ve seen the weakness in the leadership of the Labor party. Can you imagine having to go to that chorus of independents, the Greens, and everyone else, I mean, they’re weak enough as it is. Could you imagine the chaos of that type of a parliament when Australia needs to be strong. And that’s why our government is saying very clearly to Australians, the strength that we have demonstrated, the strength of our plan, particularly our economic plan to take Australia forward, is what Australia needs.

That’s the choice that’s before you. And only by voting for the Liberals and Nationals at this election can you get the strength and the certainty what you know is needed.

The prime minister is holding his press conference in Perth, where the Coalition is trying to hold on to seats.

He opens with a statement on the GST:

They [WA Liberal MPs] are a terrific team. They stood up for Western Australia. I was happy to join them as treasurer and ensure that we carried that case. You didn’t have to convince West Australians about this, but we did need to convince of the rest of the country. That’s the fight I took on many years ago as treasurer and was able to complete as prime minister and every year now, WA’s funding on GST, more than $2bn extra, is coming into those coffers every single year because of the great work done by my WA team here, right across the state.

The announcement he is making is on “an extra 1,500 Australians will be trained up for jobs in the nation’s booming defence manufacturing and technology industry, as part of a $108.5 million commitment from a re-elected Morrison Government”.

For more on Malcolm Turnbull’s speech to the Washington Harvard Club (which was delivered this morning Australian time, but Thursday night US time) Katharine Murphy has written it up:

Queensland has posted its latest Covid figures: