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If Durham police were to fine Keir Starmer for a breach of lockdown rules, then the case for his resignation would be clear, because he said Boris Johnson should resign when he was fined. Starmer is expected to acknowledge that this afternoon.

But, as explained earlier (see 10.39am), in the past Durham police said its general approach was not to issue retrospective fines over lockdown breaches. In the case of Dominic Cumming’s trip to Barnard Castle in 2020, it instead issued a statement saying Cummings probably committed minor breach of the rules. This is what it said:

Durham constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR [automatic number plate recognition], witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.

Had a Durham constabulary police officer stopped Mr Cummings driving to or from Barnard Castle, the officer would have spoken to him, and, having established the facts, likely advised Mr Cummings to return to the address in Durham, providing advice on the dangers of travelling during the pandemic crisis. Had this advice been accepted by Mr Cummings, no enforcement action would have been taken.

What would Starmer do if Durham police were produce a verdict like this? It would not exonerate him, but should he have to resign for what “might have been a minor breach”?

Starmer will be under pressure to clarify this this afternoon.

Keir Starmer will promise to resign if Durham police conclude that he broke the lockdown rules in Durham last year when he had a curry and a beer with Labour works at the end of a day campaigning, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports.

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

Starmer wrestling with whether or not to say he will resign if fined over Beergate

Jessica Elgot

Keir Starmer is wrestling with whether to announce he will resign if he is found to have breached Covid-19 rules at a gathering of campaign staff for a curry in Durham.

Labour MPs expressed fury at the chaos – with briefing lines produced by Labour HQ as late as Monday morning saying that Starmer was emphatically not considering that possibility.

One senior source said there were several within Starmer’s team who believed he should stake his leadership on having done nothing wrong – a move that would put pressure on Boris Johnson – but said they believed Starmer himself was unconvinced.

Starmer pulled out of a keynote speech at the Institute for Government, understood to be linked to the decision about how to respond to renewed pressure on him over the conduct of aides at the gathering in Durham, with some reported to have been drunk.

The growing pressure from the scandal has caused some despair among Labour MPs for preventing the party from capitalising on local election results and key airtime ahead of the Queen’s speech on Tuesday.

“We’ve lost hugely valuable time to make our case for what we would be doing in government by cancelling this speech – all because Keir is yet again unable to be bold,” said one MP, who has counselled in favour of Starmer saying he would be prepared to resign.

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has hinted defence spending should go up. In a Q&A with reporters after his speech this morning, he said his budget was “sound” for this year and next year, but he suggested an increase in 2024-25 might be needed. He said:

I have always said as a threat changes, so should our funding. No different from other parts of government, if pressure on the NHS goes up, that gets met with money. If the threat changes, then [defence spending should too]. If it goes down, be prepared for what you wish for, because if the threat goes down, maybe defence spending [should too].

Then it’s a discussion about government, about its appetite. For decades, defence spending has been at risk for a number of things, but one common risk has been government’s appetite has never matched its budget. It has done more than it can afford.

Wallace said Tobias Ellwood, the Tory chair of the defence committee, would say in a dangerous world there is a case for a higher defence budget, and he said he would agree with that. He went on:

But, at the moment, my spending for this year and last year, and next year, I’m in a sound position. The long-term is as much about what Nato plans I mean, I think we have to ask Nato: what is your long-term plan?

As PA Media reports, it has recently been revealed that Wallace wrote to Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, on 11 March warning that Britain risked missing a Nato commitment to spend 2% of national income on security by 2025.

This is from Tony Diver at the Telegraph.

Patrick Maguire from the Times says the Conservative chief whip, Chris Heaton-Harris, wants a non-aggression pact with Labour over lockdown breaches.

Kevin Schofield from HuffPost has more on the Labour thinking on why Keir Starmer should announce that, if he is fined by the police for a lockdown breach, he will resign.

Steven Swinford from the Times says Tory HQ has had to remind ministers today not to say that Keir Starmer should resign if he is fined over Beergate.

Obviously, calling for Starmer to resign in these circumstances would make it hard for the party to explain why Boris Johnson should not also resign for the fine he has already received. This is an argument understood by Conservative voters, according to the YouGov polling out today (see 11.44am) – but perhaps not by some ministers.

And here are the main lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing.

• The PM’s spokesperson did not deny a claim that the energy price cap could rise by more than £900 in the autumn. (See 12.32pm.)

• The spokesperson said that the government was keeping all options open when considering how to help people with the cost of living crisis. Asked if tax cuts were being considered, the spokesperson said:

I think we’ve seen that this government will act at the right time whenever it’s able to do. The chancellor has reiterated that point over the weekend [in an article in the Mail on Sunday].

We have significant support already available, some of which is deliberately phased to come into force later on in the year. So it’s important not to discount the billions of pounds that’s already being spent of taxpayers money on this issue.

We know that this is forefront of the public’s minds, it’s certainly forefront [of] the prime minister’s mind, and we will keep all options open but beyond that, I wouldn’t speculate on what those measures might entail.

• The Queen is expected to deliver the Queen’s speech in person tomorrow, but Buckingham Palace will confirm this tomorrow, No 10 said. Recently the Queen has had to miss some engagements because of mobility issues. If the Queen cannot attend, Prince Charles is expected to step in on her behalf.

• The spokesperson defended Ben Wallace’s decision to compare Vladimir Putin to the Nazis this morning. In a speech Wallace said:

Through their invasion of Ukraine, Putin, his inner circle and generals are now mirroring the fascism and tyranny of 77 years ago, repeating the errors of last century’s totalitarian regimes.

The spokesperson said this was a “valid” comparision given that today is the day Russia celebrates the liberation of Europe from the Nazis at the end of the second world war. He said that it was important to push back against the “false narrative” promoted by Russia that its invasion is justified by the need to denazify Ukraine. That was “simply disinformation designed to justify an illegal war”, the spokesperson said.

• The spokesperson said the government was “not setting a specific timeline” for when the dispute with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol needed to be resolved.

These are from Robert Shrimsley from the Financial Times on the proposal (see 12.15pm) for Keir Starmer to confirm that he will resign if fined for breaking lockdown rules in Durham last year.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has accused the Tories of using Beergate as part of a “massive operation” to distract attention away from Boris Johnson’s own lockdown breaches in Downing Street. Commenting on the controversy, she said:

Let’s let’s wait and see what comes of this.

What I do think is pretty obvious is that there is a massive operation under way on the part of the Conservatives to divert attention from Boris Johnson.

And not just Boris Johnson’s single breaking of the rules, but what appears to have been a serial breaching of the rules and, of course, Boris Johnson’s inability to be straight with the House of Commons.

The EU has warned the UK to “dial down the rhetoric” and start being “honest” to voters about the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol after the historic Stormont election that put Sinn Féin top of the polls, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports.