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As Guardian Australia reported this morning, the Bureau of Meteorology has just formally declared a La Nina event.

As the bureau put it:

“Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show an established La Niña. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are close to La Niña thresholds, with models indicating further cooling is likely.

“The current model outlooks suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022,” the bureau added, which is longer than previous forecasts which put the La Nina running only “at least until January”.

“All models surveyed by the Bureau indicate SSTs will meet NINO3.4 La Niña thresholds in December and January with a majority also predicting thresholds will be met in February 2022,” it added.

Translating that into English. The main global met agencies focus on a part of the equatorial Pacific – NINO3.4 – which scientists have determined is the main area to watch for emerging sea-surface temperature anomalies. When they depart from long-run averages for an extended period, they typically translate to important changes in atmospheric conditions.

During La Niña years, the typically blowing east-to-west winds strengthen and result in more rain systems developing in the western Pacific and beyond. (El Niños go the other way with the winds stalling or reversing.)

Anyway, a lot more of this to come. A La Niña declaration just means certain thresholds have been crossed, not that the weather suddenly switches. All that rain falling over eastern Australia in recent weeks points to a pattern that has been building for a while.

Earlier, we reported from the Coalition party room that the religious discrimination bill will be introduced next week.

It now seems that Scott Morrison will introduce the bill this week (on Wednesday or Thursday) but there will be no vote before next week.

Then, we expect it’s off to a Senate committee. So the government has met the timetable the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, insisted on – that it be introduced this fortnight – but expect delay and debate about its provisions.

For those wondering why the Senate didn’t allow Rex Patrick’s push to suspend standing orders and introduce a national integrity commission – the answer is that the Liberal senators Gerard Rennick and Alex Antic were paired.

That means Labor and the crossbench would have had the votes to suspend standing orders, except Rennick and Antic were paired with Labor senators, reducing the tally for those in favour of suspension.

So, despite all the huffing and puffing about withholding their vote for government legislation, when they had a major chance to embarrass the government, they passed it up.

Now, technically, they haven’t breached their commitment, because this was a procedural vote not a vote on government legislation. Senate chaos narrowly averted.

Liberal MPs and senators have raised concerns about the government’s religious discrimination bill in the Coalition party room.

Speakers included the Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman and Bass MP Bridget Archer, who raised concerns about the provisions on statements of belief; senator Andrew Bragg, who expressed concerns about gay teachers; and Wentworth MP Dave Sharma who expressed concerns about gay kids.

Up to a dozen MPs and senators spoke in support of the bill – despite the fact Coalition backbenchers haven’t seen it yet, they expressed thanks to the attorney general, Michaelia Cash, for her process of consultation to improve the bill.

The bill will be introduced in the lower house and go to a committee – but it’s still unclear what sort of committee.

Normally the Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee would deal with it, but Zimmerman asked for a joint select committee, a process which helped get bipartisan support for a marriage equality bill.

We’re still unclear on the exact timing of introduction – but Scott Morrison said it would be soon.

The Senate just voted on Rex Patrick’s bid to suspend standing orders to introduce the national integrity commission bill.

It was 25-all, and tied votes fail. So the insurrection in the Senate was narrowly defeated by the government.

The independent senator Jacqui Lambie has lashed out at the Coalition for more than three years of delay on introducing a national integrity commission.

In the Senate, Lambie said voters would be angry at the next election about the government’s “promises you fail to deliver”.

Lambie said Australia has put up with the Liberals in government for eight years and Scott Morrison is the worst prime minister “on record”, calling him “incompetent” and “not a leader”.

Lambie added she is “enjoying watching him and you fall apart”.

Lambie also warned the Liberal MPs in Tasmania Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce she will help boot them from parliament.

She said:

I look forward to running candidates there and directing preferences where they deserve to go – not to political liars.

Make sure your people in Bass and Braddon enjoy their last few months.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology will shortly announce if a La Niña event is under way in the Pacific, underscoring the prospect of a relatively cool, damp and stormy summer for much of the north and east.

The declaration will come a day after the bureau confirmed the season’s first tropical cyclone had formed in the Australian region. Cyclone Paddy developed near Christmas Island and reached category-one stretch on Monday but will weaken within days without making landfall.

A declaration of a La Niña is widely expected by the bureau at its fortnightly update of the main climate drivers for Australia’s weather on Tuesday afternoon. It has had a La Niña alert in place for weeks, and most of the models the bureau uses have been tipping such an event will last until at least January 2022.