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AFP commissioner Reece Kershaw said while religiously motivated violent extremism remained Australia’s biggest terrorism threat, the growth in ideologically motivated violent extremist was providing challenges.

He cited the following factors as posing those challenges:

* its rural and regional presence,

* its influence over young people,

* the high levels of security consciousness and

* access to firearms among adherents.

The IMVE cohort is extremely interconnected, especially online. Their views are diverse and include supports for nationalist, white supremacy and neo-Nazism. The AFP has detected a number of threats, and concentrated investigative efforts on individuals or small networks (three to four individuals) who are not aligned to members of a specific nationalist or racist group.”

More broadly, Kershaw said law enforcement was mindful of “global instability, including the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan”.

The Australian Islamist cohort is influenced by both the ISIL and AQ ideology, however there is a greater number aligned to the ISIL ideology. We expect that ISIL will transform and re-establish transnational links to increase their ability to direct or influence terrorism in other parts of the globe.”

Kershaw told the estimates committee that other significant threats were “the terrorist offenders released from Australian jails”, adding that the UK and NZ were “experiencing similar challenges”.

Eighteen terrorist offenders are scheduled for release from prison before 2026, and 54 are due for release by 2060.”

He said the community safety risk posed by the reintegration of convicted terrorist offenders into the community would be an ongoing challenge, and the AFP had established a dedicated capability to manage this risk. Without naming names, he said an offender “who was recently released almost immediately went online to access information about executions, beheadings and torture”.

The Australian federal police commissioner, Reece Kershaw, has warned of “individuals who are now pre-loaded with extremist ideology” while declaring that the end of restrictions on movement “will make it harder for law enforcement”.

Kershaw used an opening statement to a Senate estimates hearing to say Australians “need to remain vigilant” about the threat of terrorism as lockdowns end and borders reopen.

He said the threat of terrorism remains at “probable”, but noted “there have been some significant shifts, in the diversity and complexity of the environment, since the pandemic started almost a year-and-a-half ago”.

The threat of terrorism has not dissipated. In fact, the pandemic, extended lockdowns and more time spent online, has in some cases, made it easier for extremists to recruit. Increased anti-government sentiment, proliferation of conspiracy theories, physical isolation and more time spent online have increased the threat, facilitating local and transnational links between individuals and groups, and sharing of ideas among extremist communities. Across the world, including in Australia, we have individuals who are now pre-loaded with extremist ideology, and the end of restrictions on movement will make it harder for law enforcement.”

Kershaw said religiously-motivated violent extremism (RMVE) remained the biggest threat – comprising 85% of AFP investigations – while 15% related to ideologically motivated violent extremism (IMVE, a new umbrella term that includes right-wing extremism).

(For comparison, the intelligence agency Asio has recently said its own investigations into ideologically motivated violent extremists, such as racist and nationalist violent extremists, have grown, with such investigations having “approached 50 per cent of our onshore priority counter-terrorism caseload” last financial year.)

Kershaw continued:

The AFP and our partners are protecting Australians from terrorism on a number of fronts, including the concerning trend of young children occupying the attention of law enforcement agencies. Children as young as 13 years old – not even old enough to get their learners’ driver’s licence – are planning and negotiating with others online to carry out catastrophic terror attacks. Some of these youth feel isolated or do not feel like they belong, and so they retreat to the online world, looking to connect with someone, including RMVE and IMVE individuals.”

Labor’s Jenny McAllister has been asking officials in the energy estimates hearing whether stakeholders – such as the Australian Industry Group and the Clean Energy Council – had been consulted about the government’s long-term emissions reduction strategy.

Jo Evans, a deputy secretary in the industry, science, energy and resources department, says stakeholders were consulted as part of the technology roadmap that was released in September 2020and the roadmap is at the core of the strategy.

McAllister takes that as meaning no industry group has been consulted about the emissions strategy that will be taken to the Glasgow climate summit next week:

This is everything we have feared about a government that is entirely addicted to secrecy. You are going to Cop with a plan that no one has seen.

Senate estimates have begun for the energy portfolio and, if you were hoping it might shed some light on the deal for net zero, I am here to disappoint you.

Senators have been quizzing the government this morning about the agreement between the Nationals and the Liberal party for a “process” to work towards a net zero by 2050 target.

The department has told the hearing it’s not in a position to answer questions because the information is cabinet in confidence.

Officials told Labor senator Jenny McAllister they can’t answer questions about whether they’ve been asked to provide advice about the National party’s list of demands in exchange for an agreement on a net zero target, whether the department had been asked to provide advice on a government-funded coal-fired power station, or any advice on costs.

Senator Zed Seselja also told the hearing the energy and emissions reduction minister Angus Taylor had made a public interest immunity claim and would not be tabling the government’s net zero emissions modelling in the parliament.

Both McAllister and the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young asked Seselja if he knew what was in the deal the Coalition had struck.

Seselja said he couldn’t comment on cabinet processes.

Hanson-Young:

Are you aware of what the deal consists of? I’m not asking you for the detail, I’m asking you if you even know what’s in it, mate. You don’t know what’s in it, do you?